Forecasts
The Times - Blair and Cameron get ready: The timetable for the election results means that political anoraks will have to stay up until after dawn to get a true feel for the results, with many London seats declaring between 3am and 6am... The great unknown is how low the turnout will be. Lower turnout is worse for Labour and anything below 30 per cent could prove disastrous.
(Note: We forgot where we saw it, but there was an article late last week about the bulk of postal votes being postmarked last Wednesday... i.e. the Wednesday that Tony Blair assures us was in no way coloured black because nobody lost their homes or had their milk snatched or...)
The Mirror - Blair's plea to voters: Labour fears that if disenchanted voters stay at home, the Tories could gain local power by the backdoor. And it is bracing itself for election wipeout with as many as 300 councillors losing their seats. Privately, Labour insiders admits losses of more than 250 seats will be a disastrous. If the party is overtaken by David Cameron's Conservatives in just 273 seats, Labour would no longer be the largest force in local government.
Monsters & Critics - Key test for Labour: Should the Tories under David Cameron make inroads, Labour could lose at a minimum around 100 to 150 seats. Worst case scenarios put the figure closer to 300.
Monsters & Critics - U.K. parties face voters' verdict: A tolerable result for Labour would be a loss of around 100 to 150 seats, said Patrick Dunleavy, professor of government at LSE; a loss of 300 would be 'cataclysmic.' His predictions were echoed by John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, who wrote in the Independent newspaper last week that even if Labor were to do no more than repeat its 'disastrous' performance in the 2004 local elections -- when anti-war voters deserted the party in droves -- it should still not lose much more than 150 seats. Losses much above the 250 mark would be 'potentially nasty' for Blair....
Telegraph - Labour braced for heavy losses as voters give verdict: Labour MPs fear the party is heading for its worst drubbing at a local election for nearly 40 years, losing more than 200 councillors.
BBC - Leaders face local poll test: A rough and ready calculator suggests if Labour loses 150 seats, that will be within the bounds of manageability - the sort of thing that might reasonably be expected. Labour may even suggest that, against such an appalling background of the foreign offender row and John Prescott's private life, amongst other things, it's not so bad after all... It is already being rumoured that if the party suffers over 200-250 losses then Tony Blair's days will be numbered, with serious figures demanding an announcement over his departure date or even a swift resignation.
Lotsa talk today about a new number... 400. Is this meant to scare the voters? Make any number lower than this look not quite as bad?
Independent - Blair tries to head off disaster with show of power: The troubles have overshadowed Labour's election campaign and party officials fear Labour could lose up to 400 seats - their "worst-case scenario". They admit plans to fight on local issues have been scuppered by the crises.
Guardian - Labour braced for heavy blow and 400 losses in local elections: Labour expects to lose 400 councillors and control of 15-16 councils across England in local elections today. The figures are significantly worse than officials had suggested only a week ago. A net loss of 400 seats - with 4,361 seats up for grabs - would represent a grievous blow and take the number of Labour councillors nationally down to around 6,000, the lowest figure since the 1980s. Labour expects to lose half the boroughs it controls in London including Bexley, Merton, Croydon, Hammersmith and Fulham, Haringey and probably Camden. The predictions, based on the latest canvass returns and internal polling, show a dramatic worsening of the position due to the party's appalling recent publicity.
The Scum - Blair braced for disaster: Tony Blair was this morning smiling at the polling station despite facing a Black Thursday at the elections. He is resigned to huge losses nationwide. It emerged last night he has been warned privately that today's local elections could even produce a nightmare scenario of 400 lost seats. [GRAPHIC: 300-plus losses: Devastating. Time for Tone and Cherie to dust off plans for retirement. 150-plus losses: Poor. Prime Minister's grip on the Labour party is damaged forever. Below 150 losses: Good. Cherie can buy some more furniture for Downing St.]
(Note: We forgot where we saw it, but there was an article late last week about the bulk of postal votes being postmarked last Wednesday... i.e. the Wednesday that Tony Blair assures us was in no way coloured black because nobody lost their homes or had their milk snatched or...)
The Mirror - Blair's plea to voters: Labour fears that if disenchanted voters stay at home, the Tories could gain local power by the backdoor. And it is bracing itself for election wipeout with as many as 300 councillors losing their seats. Privately, Labour insiders admits losses of more than 250 seats will be a disastrous. If the party is overtaken by David Cameron's Conservatives in just 273 seats, Labour would no longer be the largest force in local government.
Monsters & Critics - Key test for Labour: Should the Tories under David Cameron make inroads, Labour could lose at a minimum around 100 to 150 seats. Worst case scenarios put the figure closer to 300.
Monsters & Critics - U.K. parties face voters' verdict: A tolerable result for Labour would be a loss of around 100 to 150 seats, said Patrick Dunleavy, professor of government at LSE; a loss of 300 would be 'cataclysmic.' His predictions were echoed by John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, who wrote in the Independent newspaper last week that even if Labor were to do no more than repeat its 'disastrous' performance in the 2004 local elections -- when anti-war voters deserted the party in droves -- it should still not lose much more than 150 seats. Losses much above the 250 mark would be 'potentially nasty' for Blair....
Telegraph - Labour braced for heavy losses as voters give verdict: Labour MPs fear the party is heading for its worst drubbing at a local election for nearly 40 years, losing more than 200 councillors.
BBC - Leaders face local poll test: A rough and ready calculator suggests if Labour loses 150 seats, that will be within the bounds of manageability - the sort of thing that might reasonably be expected. Labour may even suggest that, against such an appalling background of the foreign offender row and John Prescott's private life, amongst other things, it's not so bad after all... It is already being rumoured that if the party suffers over 200-250 losses then Tony Blair's days will be numbered, with serious figures demanding an announcement over his departure date or even a swift resignation.
Lotsa talk today about a new number... 400. Is this meant to scare the voters? Make any number lower than this look not quite as bad?
Independent - Blair tries to head off disaster with show of power: The troubles have overshadowed Labour's election campaign and party officials fear Labour could lose up to 400 seats - their "worst-case scenario". They admit plans to fight on local issues have been scuppered by the crises.
Guardian - Labour braced for heavy blow and 400 losses in local elections: Labour expects to lose 400 councillors and control of 15-16 councils across England in local elections today. The figures are significantly worse than officials had suggested only a week ago. A net loss of 400 seats - with 4,361 seats up for grabs - would represent a grievous blow and take the number of Labour councillors nationally down to around 6,000, the lowest figure since the 1980s. Labour expects to lose half the boroughs it controls in London including Bexley, Merton, Croydon, Hammersmith and Fulham, Haringey and probably Camden. The predictions, based on the latest canvass returns and internal polling, show a dramatic worsening of the position due to the party's appalling recent publicity.
The Scum - Blair braced for disaster: Tony Blair was this morning smiling at the polling station despite facing a Black Thursday at the elections. He is resigned to huge losses nationwide. It emerged last night he has been warned privately that today's local elections could even produce a nightmare scenario of 400 lost seats. [GRAPHIC: 300-plus losses: Devastating. Time for Tone and Cherie to dust off plans for retirement. 150-plus losses: Poor. Prime Minister's grip on the Labour party is damaged forever. Below 150 losses: Good. Cherie can buy some more furniture for Downing St.]
posted by Tim at 5:52 PM
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