Keys to stand against Blair
This is all beginning to look a bit messy. On Friday it was announced that ex-MI5 agent David Shayler was going to stand as an independant candidate in Tony Blair's Sedgefield constituency. Now Reg Keys, the father of Military Policeman Thomas Keys who was murdered in Iraq, also intends standing against Blair.
This is a potential nightmare scenario, with the risk of the anti-Blair vote being split a myriad ways when ideally we would like to see a straight-forward head-to-head contest between Blair and a non-partisan independant candidate.
A better target for Reg Keys would surely be Geoff Hoon. While his majority in 2001 was 13,268 (33%), this is a more attainable target than unseating Blair who had a majority of 17,713 (44%) in 2001.
If anyone has any contact details for the Keys' Campaign, could they please pass them on in order that we can try and get the involved parties to address this matter.
This is a potential nightmare scenario, with the risk of the anti-Blair vote being split a myriad ways when ideally we would like to see a straight-forward head-to-head contest between Blair and a non-partisan independant candidate.
A better target for Reg Keys would surely be Geoff Hoon. While his majority in 2001 was 13,268 (33%), this is a more attainable target than unseating Blair who had a majority of 17,713 (44%) in 2001.
If anyone has any contact details for the Keys' Campaign, could they please pass them on in order that we can try and get the involved parties to address this matter.
18 Comments:
Surely Keys has a better chance than Shayler; Key's campaign is receiving financial backing from Brian Eno, although he had previously announced that he was intending to stand against Geoff Hoon. What has brought about this change in tactics? And who has the best chance of winning?
Sorry to post again. It looks like the Brian Eno / Adam Price coalition may have persuaded Keys to switch targets. This report and this article suggests that Eno was looking for someone to stand prior to Keys' announcement. So why did Eno's group not provide backing for Shayler, then, one wonders?
Two possibilities as to why Brian Eno isn't funding Shayler, and may be unlikely to want Keys to withdraw in his favour:
1) Shayler is "dodgy". He comes from the intelligence community, even if they no longer want anything to do with him, and he did break the OSA (justifiably in my view, but still ...). Keys may have skeletons in his cupboards (though I would hope the Eno et al coalition are sufficiently clueful that they've already checked for this by this stage) but as far as the public's concerned at the mo, all he's done is have a son who died in tragic circumstances.
2) Shayler's particular beef with Blair isn't actually directly related to the general public's disgruntlement with him over Iraq and other issues, whereas Keys' situation goes to the heart of a lot of people's opposition to the war in Iraq.
Good points re: Shayler vs Keys. Blair's majority of 17,000+ will take some overturning, but an appeal to the heart on a single issue may be the best approach in Sedgefield. Hard to tell at this stage, though maybe once the two campaign teams get together something can be sorted.
For now, watch this space.
Can't disagree with that, but Eno backed Martin Bell in Tatton, and was obviously looking for a candidate to challenge Bliar before Keys came along. Wouldn't he have been better off (well, not financially) backing Keys against Hoon and Shayler against Blair? Shayler announced first: Eno must have realised the he'd be splitting the protest vote?
Shayler's irrelevant. Limited public profile, and what there is is controversial.
Eno did well not to back him and to pick a sane candidate instead.
It would be good to find a protest candidate to stand against Hoon. Who might be available?
One person who comes to mind is Katherine Gun.
On Keys Vs Shayler, I agree that Keys would be the stronger man to stand against Blair.
Comparing majorities is meaningless unless you're talking about the candidates/parties who came second last time, as it's over them that the majorities exist.
If you have a new, independent person entering the contest, it's the overall vote of the winner that they need to beat. If it's intended to be a straight fight, what matters is the percentage vote the winner got last time.
Will, that's why the overall percentages were included as well. Blair took 44% of the Sedgefield vote in 2001, while Hoon's overall majority in Ashfield was 33%.
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IMHO, Keys is an eminently more suitable (and noteworthy) candidate than Shayler. Shayler should realise this and not run against Keys.
Why do you guys think Shayler is "dodgy"?. He has damn good credentials as far as I can see. He stood up against tyrrany and was brought down for it by "spin". His story is totally relevant to highlight Blair's spin, hypocracy and support for terror and oppression and opposition to human rights.
Alan: FWIW, personally speaking I agree with you about Shayler. I just think he'll have trouble with the electorate. You said it yourself -- he was brought down by spin. It won't take a nanosecond for that to start up again, and New Labour won't be above using the distrust in the intelligence services that they themselves are largely responsible for, because of their handling of the Iraq intelligence, against him.
On the other hand, Keys is impossible to spin against without coming off looking, at best, appallingly cynical. Blair would have to fight him on the "I mean, look, I still think we did the right thing" tack.
Another point: protest candidates like this can only really work where the other main parties agree to stand aside in their favour. Has either the Keys or Shayler camp managed to secure such agreements yet for Sedgefield?
I agree that Keys is probably the man for the job. The fact that he lost his son in Iraq makes him a much more logical choice for a protest vote than Shayler, who would be an easy target for the new labour/murdoch smeer machine.
Shaylerneeds to stand down. He appears to be on some ego trip that is telling him the general public supports him. Well they don't. He has shown himself to be a liar and a fantasist.
Shayler should do the honourable thinga and step down in that constituency. In any case, Reg Keys is more likely to get the vote than Shayler now anyway. Keys would certainly get my vote over Shayler as he is a symbol of everything that Blair would like us to forget. Good luck to the man, I have a feeling he will get an exceptionally good result.
The Sedgefield election could be turned into a country-wide vote on President Blair. The Blair-out candidate can invite all voters to register a 'Yes' or 'No' vote for Blair with the Sedgefield local paper or other pre-arranged honest broker which will count and publish the number of votes.
While opinion polls purport to show the public mood they do not have the same impact as individual voters registering their opinion.
This will also enable Labour supporters to simultaneously campaign for a Labour victory and Blair's removal as leader. People are free to vote against their local Labour candidate as well if they wish.
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